# College football (college-football) · game 2026-01-20 · 20 words · K k:KXNCAAMENTION-CFBC26 · as_of 2026-10-27T04:29:05Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-01-20 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNCAAMENTION-CFBC26 ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of College Football Playoff National Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Freshman	freshman	31	31	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.97	yes
Safety	safety	33	32	0.97	YYYYYYYYYY	0.93	yes
Transfer	transfer	31	28	0.9	YYYYYYYYYY	0.86	yes
Turf	turf	34	23	0.68	nYnYYYYYYY	0.64	yes
Hard Rock	hard rock	1	1	1	Y	0.6	yes
Trump	trump	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
Draft	draft	32	20	0.62	YnnnYYYnYY	0.59	yes
Wind / Windy	wind|windy	32	20	0.62	nnYnYYnYYY	0.59	yes
Recruit / Recruitment	recruit|recruitment	31	19	0.61	YYYYYYYnYY	0.58	yes
Heisman	heisman	31	18	0.58	nYYYYYnnnY	0.56	yes
Schedule	schedule	31	17	0.55	nnYnYYYYYn	0.53	yes
Wild	wild	32	15	0.47	YnnYYYYYYn	0.47	no
Sin City	sin city	1	0	0	n	0.41	no
What a Catch	what a catch	34	11	0.32	nnnnnYYnnn	0.34	no
No Good	no good	25	8	0.32	nnnnnnnnnn	0.34	no
Late Hit	late hit	34	7	0.21	nnnYnnnYnn	0.24	no
One Handed	one handed	33	7	0.21	nnnnnnnYnn	0.24	no
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	29	5	0.17	nnnnnnnnnn	0.21	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	33	4	0.12	nnnnnnnYnn	0.16	no
Tush Push	tush push	30	3	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.14	no