# College basketball (college-basketball) · game 2026-04-07 · 16 words · K k:KXNCAABMENTION-MARMAD · as_of 2026-10-24T16:00:23Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-04-07 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNCAABMENTION-MARMAD ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Transfer / Transferred	transfer|transferred	137	116	0.85	YYYYYYYYYY	0.82	hist	yes
Record	record	137	84	0.61	nYYYYnnYYn	0.6	hist	yes
Airball / Airballed	airball|airballed	124	74	0.6	nYYYnYYYnn	0.58	hist	yes
All American / All America	all america|all american	104	59	0.57	YnnYnYnYnY	0.55	hist	yes
Elbow	elbow	137	76	0.55	nYnYnnYnnn	0.53	hist	yes
Recruit / Recruited / Recruitment	recruit|recruited|recruitment	137	69	0.5	nYnYYYnYnY	0.49	hist	no
Buzzer	buzzer	52	25	0.48	YYnnnnnnnn	0.48	hist	no
Ankle	ankle	137	64	0.47	nnYnYYnnnn	0.46	hist	yes
Double Double	double double	136	63	0.46	nnnYYYYnnY	0.45	hist	no
Overtime	overtime	134	59	0.44	YYnYYnnnnn	0.44	hist	no
Draft / Drafted	draft|drafted	104	46	0.44	YYYYYYnnnY	0.44	hist	no
Schedule	schedule	137	58	0.42	YnnnnnnnYn	0.41	hist	no
Alley-oop	alley oop	137	30	0.22	nnnnnYnnnn	0.23	hist	no
NIL	nil	137	21	0.15	nnnnYnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Walk On	walk on	137	18	0.13	YnnYnnnnnn	0.15	hist	no
Lucas Oil	lucas oil	0	0			0.45	prior	yes