# Joe Manchin (joe-manchin) · interview 2026-03-14 · 10 words · K k:KXMENTION-MANC26MAR14 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:54:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-14 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · every p is a prior (base rate: no settled history of these words) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src prior · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-MANC26MAR14 ({word} = w of K rows): If Joe Manchin says {word} as part of Fox News: Saturday in America, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	p	res
Biden	biden	0	0		0.44	no
Democrat	democrat	0	0		0.44	yes
Epstein	epstein	0	0		0.44	no
Filibuster	filibuster	0	0		0.44	yes
Fraud	fraud	0	0		0.44	no
Hormuz	hormuz	0	0		0.44	no
Iran	iran	0	0		0.44	yes
Oil	oil	0	0		0.44	no
SAVE Act / SAVE America	save act|save america	0	0		0.44	no
Trump	trump	0	0		0.44	yes