# Mark Kelly (mark-kelly) · interview 2026-03-11 · 12 words · K k:KXMENTION-KELL26MAR10 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:14:17Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-11 · tn/th blank: no interview transcripts yet · every p is a prior (base rate: no settled history of these words) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src prior · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMENTION-KELL26MAR10 ({word} = w of K rows): If Mark Kelly says {word} as part of The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	p	res
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	0	0		0.44	no
Gas Tax / Relief Act	gas tax|relief act	0	0		0.44	no
Hegseth	hegseth	0	0		0.44	no
ICE / DHS	dhs|ice	0	0		0.44	no
Iran	iran	0	0		0.44	yes
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	0	0		0.44	no
Kristi / Noem	kristi|noem	0	0		0.44	no
Missile	missile	0	0		0.44	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	0	0		0.44	yes
Oil	oil	0	0		0.44	yes
Republican	republican	0	0		0.44	no
Trump	trump	0	0		0.44	yes