# Real Time (real-time-with-bill-maher) · tv_episode 2025-10-18 · 10 words · K k:KXMAHERMENTION-25OCT18 · as_of 2026-10-25T00:28:50Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-10-18 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · every p is a prior (base rate: no settled history of these words) · same on every row: v K, p_src prior · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXMAHERMENTION-25OCT18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Bill Maher says {word} as part of Real Time with Bill Maher on October 17th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	p	res
1929	1929	1	0	0		0.28	yes
Bitcoin / Crypto	bitcoin|crypto	1	0	0		0.28	no
Cost Plus Drug	cost plus drug	1	0	0		0.28	yes
Great Depression	great depression	1	0	0		0.28	no
Netflix	netflix	1	0	0		0.28	no
Retire / Retirement	retire|retirement	1	0	0		0.28	no
Stock Market	stock market	1	0	0		0.28	yes
TikTok	tiktok	1	0	0		0.28	no
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	0	0		0.28	yes
Woke	woke	1	0	0		0.28	yes