# Karoline Leavitt (karoline-leavitt) · interview 2026-03-07 · 18 words · K k:KXLEAVITTSMFMENTION-26MAR07 · as_of 2026-10-24T14:12:01Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-07 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-08..2026-03-04 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXLEAVITTSMFMENTION-26MAR07 ({word} = w of K rows): If Karoline Leavitt says {word} as part of Fox News: America Reports, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Democrat	democrat	1	1	1	Y	8	6	0.48	hist	yes
ICE / National Guard	ice|national guard	1	1	1	Y	8	6	0.48	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	0	0			8	4	0.45	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	1	1	Y	8	2	0.39	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	0	0	n	8	1	0.34	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	0	0			8	5	0.34	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	0	0			8	2	0.3	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	0	0	n	8	4	0.29	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	0	0	n	8	4	0.29	hist	no
Border	border	0	0			8	6	0.35	prior	no
College	college	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	yes
Election	election	0	0			8	3	0.35	prior	no
Epic Fury	epic fury	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	yes
Iran	iran	0	0			8	4	0.35	prior	yes
Kristi / Noem	kristi|noem	0	0			8	4	0.35	prior	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	0	0			8	3	0.35	prior	yes
Sanctuary	sanctuary	0	0			8	2	0.35	prior	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	0	0			8	1	0.35	prior	no