# Jimmy Kimmel Live! (jimmy-kimmel-live) · tv_episode 2025-12-26 · 8 words · K k:KXKIMMELMENTION-25DEC26 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:15:41Z
# scope K host · n/y settled before 2025-12-26 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXKIMMELMENTION-25DEC26 ({word} = w of K rows): If Jimmy Kimmel says {word} as part of Alternative Christmas Message, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Trump	trump	7	6	0.86	YYYYYnY	0.6	hist
FCC	fcc	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist
Charlie / Kirk	charlie|kirk	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.42	hist
Free Speech / Freedom of Speech	free speech|freedom of speech	0	0			0.42	hist
Crown / Castle	castle|crown	0	0			0.41	prior
Hanukkah	hanukkah	0	0			0.41	prior
Royal	royal	0	0			0.41	prior
Social Media	social media	0	0			0.41	prior