# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · hearing 2026-05-12 · 18 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY12 · as_of 2026-10-26T16:35:03Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-12 · tn/th blank: no hearing transcripts yet · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAY12 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of House Appropriations Committee - Budget Hearing The Department of Defense , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	11	11	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.76	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	10	9	0.9	YnYYYYYYYY	0.69	yes
Golden Dome	golden dome	1	3	3	1	YYY	0.67	no
Drone	drone	1	13	10	0.77	YYYYYYYnYY	0.66	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	11	8	0.73	nYYnYYYYYY	0.64	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.61	yes
Epic Fury	epic fury	1	1	1	1	Y	0.59	yes
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	1	1	1	Y	0.59	yes
Lethal	lethal	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.56	yes
Space Force	space force	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.53	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	10	5	0.5	nYnYnYnnYY	0.5	no
America First	america first	1	11	6	0.55	nnYYYYnnnY	0.45	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence 	ai|artificial intelligence	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.44	no
Oil	oil	1	11	4	0.36	nYnnnYnnYn	0.41	no
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	no
NATO	nato	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	no
Anthropic / Claude	anthropic|claude	1	2	0	0	nn	0.33	no
Fake News	fake new	1	12	3	0.25	nnYnnnYnnn	0.3	no