# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · presser 2026-03-31 · 17 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR31 · as_of 2026-10-24T15:49:30Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-31 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR31 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Operation Epic Fury Press Conference on March 31st, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.76	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	7	6	0.86	YnYYYYY	0.73	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	7	5	0.71	nnYYYYY	0.69	hist	yes
Civilian / School	civilian|school	1	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	no
Hamas / Hezbollah	hama|hezbollah	1	1	1	1	Y	0.57	hist	no
America First	america first	1	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	0.54	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	5	3	0.6	YnYnY	0.53	hist	no
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.48	hist	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	5	2	0.4	nnnYY	0.48	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	5	2	0.4	nnYYn	0.43	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	5	2	0.4	YnYnn	0.41	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	6	2	0.33	nYnnYn	0.4	hist	no
Russia	russia	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.38	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.3	hist	no
Tomahawk	tomahawk	1	2	0	0	nn	0.29	hist	no
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.19	hist	yes
Kharg Island	kharg island	1	0	0			0.45	prior	no