# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · presser 2026-03-19 · 16 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR19 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:36:21Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-19 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR19 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Press Conference on March 19th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	4	4	1	YYYY	0.73	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	6	5	0.83	YnYYYY	0.69	yes
Drone	drone	1	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.65	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.48	no
America First	america first	1	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.47	yes
Oil	oil	1	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.46	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.46	yes
Russia	russia	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.46	no
Fake News	fake new	1	5	2	0.4	nYnnY	0.46	no
Civilian / School	civilian|school	1	0	0			0.46	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.39	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	4	1	0.25	nnnY	0.39	yes
Hamas / Hezbollah	hama|hezbollah	1	0	0			0.36	yes
Tomahawk	tomahawk	1	1	0	0	n	0.34	no
Democrat	democrat	1	4	1	0.25	Ynnn	0.33	no
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.21	no