# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · presser 2026-03-06 · 20 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR06 · as_of 2026-10-25T23:10:53Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-06 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26MAR06 ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Operation Epic Fury Press Conference on March 5th, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.62	yes
America First	america first	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
Civilian	civilian	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
Democrat	democrat	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
Iraq	iraq	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	yes
Oil	oil	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
Submarine	submarine	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	1	1	1	Y	0.6	no
F-15 / F-15E	f 15|f 15e	1	0	0			0.57	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.56	no
Drone	drone	1	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.48	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	0	0			0.45	no
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	1	0	0	n	0.44	no
Kurd / Kurdish	kurd|kurdish	1	1	0	0	n	0.4	no
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	no
Constitution / Constitutional	constitution|constitutional	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	no
Hezbollah	hezbollah	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	no
Hormuz	hormuz	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	no
Midnight Hammer	midnight hammer	1	1	0	0	n	0.38	no