# Pete Hegseth (pete-hegseth) · briefing 2026-04-16 · 17 words · K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR16B · as_of 2026-10-24T19:26:45Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-04-16 · tn/th blank: no briefing transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXHEGSETHMENTION-26APR16B ({word} = w of K rows): If Pete Hegseth says {word} as part of Pentagon Press Briefing , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	7	7	1	YYYYYYY	0.62	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	9	7	0.78	nnYYYYYYY	0.58	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	7	5	0.71	YnnYYYY	0.52	hist	no
Civilian	civilian	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.48	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	7	4	0.57	nnnYYYY	0.48	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	7	4	0.57	nnYYnYY	0.46	hist	yes
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	1	7	4	0.57	YnYnYnY	0.45	hist	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	1	6	3	0.5	nYnYnY	0.42	hist	no
Oil	oil	1	7	3	0.43	YnYnnnY	0.38	hist	no
Russia	russia	1	5	2	0.4	nYnYn	0.31	hist	no
Hamas / Hezbollah	hama|hezbollah	1	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.28	hist	no
Children / School	children|school	1	0	0			0.28	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	8	2	0.25	nYnnYnnn	0.25	hist	yes
CIA	cia	1	1	0	0	n	0.24	hist	no
Ayatollah / Khamenei	ayatollah|khamenei	1	7	1	0.14	nnnnnYn	0.22	hist	no
Democrat	democrat	1	7	1	0.14	Ynnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Pakistan	pakistan	1	0	0			0.37	prior	no