# UFC & boxing (ufc-and-boxing) · game 2026-02-21 · 16 words · K k:KXFIGHTMENTION-26FEB21SPIDEL · as_of 2026-10-27T03:01:51Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-02-21 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXFIGHTMENTION-26FEB21SPIDEL ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of Spivak vs Delija professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Feb 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Decision / Judge	decision|judge	5	3	0.6	nYYYn	0.47	hist	yes
Triangle	triangle	5	3	0.6	YYnnY	0.47	hist	no
Toyota	toyota	0	0			0.4	hist	no
Choke / Choked / Chokehold	choke|choked|chokehold	5	2	0.4	YnnnY	0.35	hist	no
Blood / Bloody	blood|bloody	6	2	0.33	nYnnYn	0.32	hist	yes
Championship	championship	6	2	0.33	YnYnnn	0.31	hist	no
Slip / Slips / Slipped	slip|slipped	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	0.23	hist	no
Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out	knock out|knocked out|knockout	6	1	0.17	nnnnYn	0.21	hist	yes
Smashed / Smashing	smashed|smashing	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.21	hist	no
Tired / Tiring	tired|tiring	6	1	0.17	Ynnnnn	0.21	hist	yes
Dana	dana	7	1	0.14	nnnnnnY	0.2	hist	no
Train / Trained / Training	train|trained|training	3	0	0	nnn	0.15	hist	yes
Legal / Illegal	illegal|legal	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.11	hist	no
Lights Out	lights out	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	0.09	hist	no
Polar Bear	polar bear	0	0			0.27	prior	yes
Walking Trouble	walking trouble	0	0			0.27	prior	yes