# Survivor (survivor) · tv_episode 2026-03-11 · 16 words · K k:KXENTMENTION-CONT26MAR11 · as_of 2026-10-24T09:01:26Z
# scope K contestants_ex_host · n/y settled before 2026-03-11 · tn/th blank: no tv episode transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXENTMENTION-CONT26MAR11 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating contestant says {word} as part of Survivor Season 50 Episode 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Strategy / Strategic	strategic|strategy	0	0			0.52	hist	yes
Target	target	12	3	0.25	nnYnnnYnnY	0.36	hist	yes
Snake	snake	2	0	0	nn	0.24	hist	no
Alliance	alliance	14	2	0.14	nnnnnnnYnn	0.23	hist	yes
Betray / Betrayed / Betrayal	betray|betrayal|betrayed	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Big Move	big move	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Blood / Bloody	blood|bloody	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Bond / Bonded / Bonding	bond|bonded|bonding	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Clue	clue	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Drama	drama	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Loyal / Loyalty	loyal|loyalty	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Million	million	0	0			0.33	prior	no
Ocean	ocean	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Relationship	relationship	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Shelter	shelter	0	0			0.33	prior	yes
Threat	threat	0	0			0.33	prior	yes