# Political debates (political-debates) · debate 2026-10-07 · 19 words · K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT07 · as_of 2026-10-24T11:39:45Z
# scope K any_candidate · n/y settled before 2026-10-07 · tn/th blank: no debate transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXDEBATEMENTION-26OCT07 ({word} = w of K rows): If any participating candidate says {word} as part of Iowa Press Debates: U.S. Senate originally scheduled for October 7, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Data Center	data center	1	10	9	0.9	nYYYYYYYYY	0.82	hist	yes
Trump (5+ times)	trump#5	5	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.81	hist	no
Billionaire	billionaire	1	10	8	0.8	YYYnnYYYYY	0.73	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	5	4	0.8	YYnYY	0.7	hist	yes
Corrupt / Corruption	corrupt|corruption	1	12	9	0.75	nYYYYYnnYY	0.67	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	22	12	0.55	nYnYnYYYYY	0.64	hist	yes
Minimum Wage	minimum wage	1	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.6	hist	no
Border	border	1	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.57	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	8	4	0.5	YYYnnYnn	0.47	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	8	3	0.38	nnYnYYnn	0.44	hist	yes
Abortion	abortion	1	2	0	0	nn	0.4	hist	no
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto|cryptocurrency	1	2	0	0	nn	0.39	hist	no
Agent Orange	agent orange	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Cancer	cancer	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Ethanol / E15	e15|ethanol	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Farm Bill	farm bill	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Medicaid / Medicare	medicaid|medicare	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Social Security	social security	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes
Term Limit	term limit	1	0	0			0.59	prior	yes