# Mark Carney (mark-carney) · keynote 2026-11-18 · 16 words · K k:KXCARNEYMENTION-26NOV18 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:54:33Z
# scope K named · n/y settled · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXCARNEYMENTION-26NOV18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Mark Carney says {word} as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Defense / Defence	defence|defense	1	7	7	1	YYYYYYY	0.64	hist
Arctic	arctic	1	9	8	0.89	YYYYYnYYY	0.63	hist
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	19	13	0.68	nYYYnYnnYY	0.58	hist
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	1	13	7	0.54	YnYnYnnnYY	0.5	hist
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	1	19	11	0.58	YnYnnYnnnY	0.49	hist
Tariff	tariff	1	22	9	0.41	YYYnnnYYnY	0.49	hist
NATO	nato	1	16	10	0.62	YYYYnnYnnY	0.46	hist
Ukraine / Ukrainian	ukraine|ukrainian	1	2	1	0.5	nY	0.45	hist
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	19	7	0.37	nnnnnnYYnY	0.42	hist
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	14	5	0.36	nYnYnnnYnn	0.36	hist
Lumber	lumber	1	3	0	0	nnn	0.36	hist
Nuclear	nuclear	1	4	0	0	nnnn	0.29	hist
51st State	51st state	1	0	0			0.43	prior
Pipeline	pipeline	1	0	0			0.43	prior
Trump (3+ times)	trump#3	3	0	0			0.43	prior
USMCA / CUSMA	cusma|usmca	1	0	0			0.43	prior