# Hailey Bieber (hailey-bieber) · keynote 2026-11-18 · 15 words · K k:KXBIEBERMENTION-26NOV18 · as_of 2026-10-26T08:09:20Z
# scope K named · n/y settled · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · every p is a prior (base rate: no settled history of these words) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src prior · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBIEBERMENTION-26NOV18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Hailey Bieber says {word} as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	p
Acquired / Acquisition	acquired|acquisition	0	0		0.35
Adanola	adanola	0	0		0.35
Billion	billion	0	0		0.35
e.l.f. / Elf	elf	0	0		0.35
Europe / European	europe|european	0	0		0.35
Fragrance	fragrance	0	0		0.35
Highlight Milk	highlight milk	0	0		0.35
Lip Tint	lip tint	0	0		0.35
Makeup	makeup	0	0		0.35
Peptide	peptide	0	0		0.35
Pocket Bronze	pocket bronze	0	0		0.35
Rhode	rhode	0	0		0.35
Sephora	sephora	0	0		0.35
Skincare / Skin Care	skin care|skincare	0	0		0.35
Skylrk	skylrk	0	0		0.35