# Scott Bessent (scott-bessent) · keynote 2025-12-04 · 18 words · K k:KXBESSENTMTPMENTION-25DEC04 · as_of 2026-10-24T20:43:19Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-12-04 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2025-04-29 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXBESSENTMTPMENTION-25DEC04 ({word} = w of K rows): If Scott Bessent says {word} as part of 2025 New York Times DealBook Summit, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
China	china	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	2	2	1	YY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Deficit	deficit	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.58	hist	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.58	hist	no
Economy / Economic	economic|economy	0	0			1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	2	1	0.5	nY	1	0	0.53	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.37	hist	no
Recession	recession	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.37	hist	no
Data Center	data center	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	no
Fed	fed	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	yes
GDP	gdp	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	no
Inflation	inflation	0	0			1	1	0.47	prior	yes
Innovation	innovation	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	no
Middle Class	middle class	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	no
National Security	national security	0	0			1	1	0.47	prior	no
Stablecoin	stablecoin	0	0			1	0	0.47	prior	no
Tax Cut	tax cut	0	0			1	1	0.47	prior	no
Trump	trump	0	0			1	1	0.47	prior	yes