# UFC & boxing (ufc-and-boxing) · game 2026-04-04 · 16 words · K k:KXFIGHTMENTION-26APR04MOIDUN · as_of 2026-10-27T23:15:01Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-04-04 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXFIGHTMENTION-26APR04MOIDUN ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of Moicano vs Duncan professional MMA fight, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Train / Trained / Training	train|trained|training	21	13	0.62	YYnnYYYYnn	0.57	hist	yes
Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out	knock out|knocked out|knockout	24	14	0.58	YnYnYYYYnn	0.56	hist	yes
Decision / Judged	decision|judged	15	9	0.6	YnYnYYYnnn	0.54	hist	no
Triangle	triangle	23	9	0.39	YnnnnnYYnn	0.39	hist	yes
Choke / Choked / Chokehold	choke|choked|chokehold	23	7	0.3	YnnnnnnYYY	0.32	hist	yes
Slip / Slips / Slipped	slip|slipped	23	7	0.3	YnnnnYYnnn	0.31	hist	no
Championship	championship	24	7	0.29	YnnnnnYYnn	0.31	hist	no
Tired / Tiring	tired|tiring	24	7	0.29	nnYnnnnYnn	0.3	hist	no
Blood / Bloody	blood|bloody	24	7	0.29	nnnnnnYnnn	0.29	hist	yes
Meta	meta	6	1	0.17	nYnnnn	0.21	hist	yes
Legal / Illegal	illegal|legal	23	2	0.09	nnYnnnnnnn	0.12	hist	no
Dana	dana	25	2	0.08	nnnnnYnnnn	0.11	hist	no
What a Fight	what a fight	12	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.05	hist	no
Lights Out	lights out	24	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.03	hist	no
Money	money	0	0			0.29	prior	yes
The Problem	the problem	0	0			0.29	prior	no