# UFC & boxing (ufc-and-boxing) · game 2026-03-14 · 16 words · K k:KXFIGHTMENTION-26MAR14EMMVAL · as_of 2026-10-27T11:20:07Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-03-14 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K, res no · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXFIGHTMENTION-26MAR14EMMVAL ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of Emmett vs Vallejos professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Mar 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src
Decision / Judged	decision|judged	6	5	0.83	nYYYYY	0.65	hist
Train / Trained / Training	train|trained|training	12	8	0.67	nYYYnYYYYY	0.6	hist
Knockout / Knock Out / Knocked Out	knock out|knocked out|knockout	15	9	0.6	nYYYYYYYnY	0.57	hist
Triangle	triangle	14	7	0.5	YnnnnYnYYY	0.48	hist
Blood / Bloody	blood|bloody	15	6	0.4	nYnnYnYnYn	0.38	hist
Slip / Slips / Slipped	slip|slipped	14	5	0.36	nnnYnnYnYY	0.36	hist
Championship	championship	15	5	0.33	nnnnnnYYnY	0.35	hist
Tired / Tiring	tired|tiring	15	5	0.33	nYnnnYYnYn	0.34	hist
Meta	meta	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.33	hist
Choke / Choked / Chokehold	choke|choked|chokehold	14	4	0.29	YnnnYnnnnY	0.3	hist
What a Fight	what a fight	3	0	0	nnn	0.16	hist
Legal / Illegal	illegal|legal	14	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnYn	0.12	hist
Dana	dana	16	1	0.06	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.11	hist
Lights Out	lights out	15	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.05	hist
CC0 / CCO	cc0|cco	0	0			0.31	prior
Chino	chino	0	0			0.31	prior