# NFL (nfl) · game 2026-01-04 · 20 words · K k:KXNFLMENTION-26JAN04MIANE · as_of 2026-10-26T15:17:57Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-01-04 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNFLMENTION-26JAN04MIANE ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of Miami at New England professional football game originally scheduled for Jan 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Safety	safety	69	67	0.97	YYYYYYYYYY	0.95	hist	yes
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	53	48	0.91	nYYYnYYYYY	0.87	hist	yes
Record	record	19	17	0.89	YYYYYYYYYY	0.79	hist	yes
Trade / Traded	trade|traded	51	39	0.76	nYYYYYYYYY	0.71	hist	yes
Pro Bowl / Pro Bowler	pro bowl|pro bowler	35	24	0.69	YYYYYYYYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Turf	turf	69	38	0.55	nnYYnYnYnY	0.54	hist	no
Wind / Windy	wind|windy	35	20	0.57	nYnYYnYnYY	0.53	hist	no
Contract	contract	35	18	0.51	nYYYnYYYnY	0.49	hist	yes
Schedule	schedule	35	18	0.51	nnnnnYYnYn	0.49	hist	yes
Robert Kraft	robert kraft	4	2	0.5	nYYn	0.49	hist	yes
Fine / Fines / Fined	fine|fined	35	16	0.46	nnnnYnnYYn	0.46	hist	yes
Next Gen Stat	next gen stat	35	14	0.4	YYnnnnnYYn	0.39	hist	no
Tush Push	tush push	36	13	0.36	nnnnYYnYnY	0.36	hist	no
Hunt / Hunting	hunt|hunting	35	12	0.34	YnnnnnnYnn	0.34	hist	no
What a Catch	what a catch	64	19	0.3	nnnnnnnYnY	0.31	hist	no
One Handed	one handed	71	14	0.2	nnnnnnYnnY	0.22	hist	yes
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	71	9	0.13	nnnYnYYnnY	0.16	hist	no
No Good	no good	13	1	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	0.14	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	70	8	0.11	nnnnnnnYnn	0.13	hist	no
Gillette	gillette	0	0			0.48	prior	no