# NFL (nfl) · game 2026-01-03 · 20 words · K k:KXNFLMENTION-26JAN04CARTB · as_of 2026-10-26T10:01:58Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2026-01-03 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNFLMENTION-26JAN04CARTB ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of Carolina at Tampa Bay professional football game originally scheduled for Jan 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Safety	safety	69	67	0.97	YYYYYYYYYY	0.95	yes
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	53	48	0.91	nYYYnYYYYY	0.87	yes
Record	record	19	17	0.89	YYYYYYYYYY	0.83	no
Trade / Traded	trade|traded	51	39	0.76	nYYYYYYYYY	0.73	no
Pro Bowl / Pro Bowler	pro bowl|pro bowler	35	24	0.69	YYYYYYYYYY	0.66	yes
Raymond James	raymond jame	1	1	1	Y	0.58	no
Wind / Windy	wind|windy	35	20	0.57	nYnYYnYnYY	0.55	no
Turf	turf	69	38	0.55	nnYYnYnYnY	0.54	yes
Contract	contract	35	18	0.51	nYYYnYYYnY	0.5	no
Schedule	schedule	35	18	0.51	nnnnnYYnYn	0.5	no
Fine / Fines / Fined	fine|fined	35	16	0.46	nnnnYnnYYn	0.45	yes
Tom Brady	tom brady	10	4	0.4	nnnYYYYnnn	0.42	no
Next Gen Stat	next gen stat	35	14	0.4	YYnnnnnYYn	0.4	no
Tush Push	tush push	36	13	0.36	nnnnYYnYnY	0.37	no
Hunt / Hunting	hunt|hunting	35	12	0.34	YnnnnnnYnn	0.35	no
What a Catch	what a catch	64	19	0.3	nnnnnnnYnY	0.32	no
One Handed	one handed	71	14	0.2	nnnnnnYnnY	0.22	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	71	9	0.13	nnnYnYYnnY	0.16	no
No Good	no good	13	1	0.08	nnnnnnnnnn	0.15	no
Late Hit	late hit	70	8	0.11	nnnnnnnYnn	0.14	no