# NFL (nfl) · game 2025-11-30 · 25 words · K k:KXTNFMENTION-25DEC01 · as_of 2026-10-25T19:09:06Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2025-11-30 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTNFMENTION-25DEC01 ({word} = w of K rows): If Play-by-Play or Color Commentary announcer says {word} as part of Buffalo at Pittsburgh pro football game commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Safety	safety	30	29	0.97	YYYYYYYYYY	0.92	hist	yes
Picked	picked	15	15	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.91	hist	yes
Speed	speed	25	24	0.96	YYYYYnYYYY	0.9	hist	yes
Tie / Ties / Tied	tie|tied	18	17	0.94	YYYYYYYYYY	0.87	hist	yes
Fumble / Fumbles / Fumbled	fumble|fumbled	20	17	0.85	YYYYnYYYYY	0.78	hist	yes
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	14	12	0.86	YYYYnYnYYY	0.77	hist	yes
Trade / Traded	trade|traded	12	10	0.83	YYYnnYYYYY	0.74	hist	yes
Inch / Inches	inch	32	23	0.72	YYnYYYnnYY	0.68	hist	yes
Veteran	veteran	22	16	0.73	nYnYYnnYYY	0.67	hist	yes
Turkey	turkey	2	2	1	YY	0.64	hist	no
Facemask / Face Mask	face mask|facemask	32	21	0.66	nYYYnnYnYY	0.62	hist	yes
Wild	wild	32	20	0.62	nYYYYYYYnY	0.58	hist	yes
Big Ben / Roethlisberger	big ben|roethlisberger	1	1	1	Y	0.55	hist	no
Turf	turf	30	16	0.53	nYnYYYYYYY	0.52	hist	no
Overtime	overtime	32	13	0.41	nnYYYYnnnY	0.4	hist	no
Stuffed	stuffed	24	9	0.38	YYnYnnYnnY	0.38	hist	no
Pylon	pylon	32	8	0.25	nnYnnnYnYn	0.27	hist	no
Intentional Grounding	intentional grounding	27	6	0.22	nnYnYYnnnn	0.25	hist	no
Hail Mary	hail mary	30	6	0.2	YYnnnnnnnn	0.23	hist	no
What a Catch	what a catch	25	4	0.16	nnnnnnYnnY	0.2	hist	yes
One Handed	one handed	32	5	0.16	nnnnnnYnnn	0.19	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	31	4	0.13	nnnnnnnnnY	0.16	hist	no
Concussion Protocol	concussion protocol	27	2	0.07	nnnYnnnnnn	0.11	hist	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	32	2	0.06	nnnnnnnYnn	0.1	hist	no
Heinz	heinz	0	0			0.44	prior	no