# NFL (nfl) · game 2025-11-27 · 24 words · K k:KXTNFMENTION-25NOV28 · as_of 2026-10-27T11:13:38Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2025-11-27 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTNFMENTION-25NOV28 ({word} = w of K rows): If the Play-by-Play or Color Commentary announcer says {word} as part of Cincinnati at Baltimore pro football game commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Safety	safety	26	25	0.96	YYYYYYYYYY	0.92	hist	yes
Picked	picked	11	11	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.9	hist	yes
Speed	speed	21	20	0.95	YYYYYYYYYn	0.89	hist	yes
Tie / Ties / Tied	tie|tied	14	13	0.93	YYYYYYYYYY	0.86	hist	yes
Fumble / Fumbles / Fumbled	fumble|fumbled	16	13	0.81	YYnYYYYYnY	0.76	hist	yes
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	10	9	0.9	YYYYYYYYnY	0.73	hist	yes
Trade / Traded	trade|traded	8	6	0.75	YYYYYnnY	0.7	hist	yes
Inch / Inches	inch	28	21	0.75	YYYYYYnYYY	0.66	hist	yes
Veteran	veteran	18	13	0.72	nYYYnYnYYn	0.64	hist	yes
Facemask / Face Mask	face mask|facemask	28	18	0.64	nYYnnYYYnn	0.59	hist	yes
Wild	wild	28	17	0.61	nnnnnYYYYY	0.58	hist	no
Turkey	turkey	0	0			0.55	hist	yes
Turf	turf	26	12	0.46	YnnnnYnYYY	0.49	hist	yes
Overtime	overtime	28	12	0.43	nnnnnnYYYY	0.4	hist	no
Stuffed	stuffed	20	7	0.35	nnnnYYnYnn	0.37	hist	no
Intentional Grounding	intentional grounding	23	6	0.26	nYnnnnYnYY	0.27	hist	no
Pylon	pylon	28	6	0.21	nnnnnnYnnn	0.26	hist	yes
Hail Mary	hail mary	26	6	0.23	YnnnYYnnnn	0.24	hist	no
One Handed	one handed	28	4	0.14	nYnnnnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
What a Catch	what a catch	21	2	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	0.17	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	27	3	0.11	nnnnnnnnnn	0.13	hist	no
Concussion Protocol	concussion protocol	23	2	0.09	nnnnnnnYnn	0.12	hist	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	28	1	0.04	nnnnnnnnnn	0.11	hist	no
Black Friday	black friday	0	0			0.43	prior	yes