# NFL (nfl) · game 2025-11-20 · 25 words · K k:KXTNFMENTION-25NOV21 · as_of 2026-10-27T10:40:56Z
# scope K named_crew · n/y settled before 2025-11-20 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTNFMENTION-25NOV21 ({word} = w of K rows): If Al Michaels and/or Kirk Herbstreit says {word} as part of Buffalo at Houston pro football game commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Speed	speed	18	18	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.92	hist	yes
Safety	safety	23	22	0.96	YYYYYYYYYY	0.89	hist	yes
Picked	picked	8	8	1	YYYYYYYY	0.83	hist	yes
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	8	8	1	YYYYYYYY	0.83	hist	no
Tie / Ties / Tied	tie|tied	11	10	0.91	YYYYYYYYYY	0.8	hist	yes
Trade / Traded	trade|traded	5	5	1	YYYYY	0.76	hist	no
Fumble / Fumbles / Fumbled	fumble|fumbled	13	11	0.85	YYnYYnYYYY	0.75	hist	yes
Inch / Inches	inch	25	18	0.72	YnYYYYYYYn	0.67	hist	yes
Veteran	veteran	15	11	0.73	nYYnYYYnYn	0.66	hist	yes
Facemask / Face Mask	face mask|facemask	25	17	0.68	nYYnYYnnYY	0.63	hist	yes
Wild	wild	25	14	0.56	nYYnnnnnYY	0.51	hist	yes
Turf	turf	23	9	0.39	nnnYnnnnYn	0.39	hist	yes
Overtime	overtime	25	9	0.36	nnYnnnnnnY	0.36	hist	yes
Stuffed	stuffed	17	6	0.35	nYnnnnnYYn	0.36	hist	yes
Hail Mary	hail mary	24	6	0.25	nnYnnnYYnn	0.28	hist	no
Pylon	pylon	25	6	0.24	nnYnnnnnnY	0.26	hist	no
Intentional Grounding	intentional grounding	20	4	0.2	YnnnYnnnnY	0.24	hist	no
One Handed	one handed	25	4	0.16	nnnnYnnnnn	0.2	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	24	3	0.12	nnnnnnnnnn	0.16	hist	no
What a Catch	what a catch	18	2	0.11	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.16	hist	no
Concussion Protocol	concussion protocol	20	1	0.05	nnnnnnnnnn	0.1	hist	yes
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	25	1	0.04	nnnnnnnnnn	0.08	hist	no
Baby / Birth / Born	baby|birth|born	0	0			0.41	prior	no
JJ Watt	jj watt	0	0			0.41	prior	no
Rodeo	rodeo	0	0			0.41	prior	no