# NFL (nfl) · game 2025-11-06 · 23 words · K k:KXTNFMENTION-25NOV07 · as_of 2026-10-26T04:08:44Z
# scope K named_crew · n/y settled before 2025-11-06 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTNFMENTION-25NOV07 ({word} = w of K rows): If Al Michaels and/or Kirk Herbstreit says {word} as part of Las Vegas at Denver pro football game commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Speed	speed	12	12	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.88	hist	yes
Safety	safety	17	16	0.94	YYYYYYYYYY	0.86	hist	yes
Fumble / Fumbles / Fumbled	fumble|fumbled	7	6	0.86	YYYYYnY	0.7	hist	yes
Picked	picked	3	3	1	YYY	0.68	hist	yes
Veteran	veteran	9	7	0.78	YYYYYnYYn	0.67	hist	yes
Tie / Ties / Tied	tie|tied	5	4	0.8	nYYYY	0.64	hist	yes
Facemask / Face Mask	face mask|facemask	19	13	0.68	YYYYYnnYYn	0.63	hist	yes
Inch / Inches	inch	19	13	0.68	nYYYnYYnYY	0.63	hist	yes
Wild	wild	19	12	0.63	YYnYYnnYYn	0.56	hist	no
Trade / Traded	trade|traded	1	1	1	Y	0.53	hist	yes
Altitude	altitude	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	yes
Turf	turf	17	8	0.47	YnYYYnnnnY	0.45	hist	no
Overtime	overtime	19	8	0.42	nYnnYnnnYn	0.41	hist	no
Stuffed	stuffed	11	4	0.36	nYnnYnnYnn	0.37	hist	no
Pylon	pylon	19	5	0.26	nnnnnYnnYn	0.29	hist	no
Hail Mary	hail mary	19	4	0.21	YYnnnnnYnn	0.24	hist	no
What a Catch	what a catch	12	2	0.17	nnnYnnYnnn	0.22	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	18	3	0.17	nnnnYnnnnn	0.21	hist	no
One Handed	one handed	19	3	0.16	nnnYYYnnnn	0.2	hist	yes
Intentional Grounding	intentional grounding	14	2	0.14	YnnnnnYnnn	0.2	hist	yes
Concussion Protocol	concussion protocol	14	1	0.07	nnnnnYnnnn	0.14	hist	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	19	1	0.05	Ynnnnnnnnn	0.1	hist	no
Oakland	oakland	0	0			0.4	prior	no