# NFL (nfl) · game 2025-10-16 · 26 words · K k:KXTNFMENTION-25OCT17 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:28:39Z
# scope K named_crew · n/y settled before 2025-10-16 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTNFMENTION-25OCT17 ({word} = w of K rows): If Al Michaels and/or Kirk Herbstreit says {word} as part of Pittsburgh at Cincinnati pro football game commentary, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Safety	safety	10	9	0.9	YYYYYYnYYY	0.77	hist	yes
Fumble	fumble	10	9	0.9	YYYYYYnYYY	0.73	hist	yes
Tie	tie	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	0.67	hist	no
Speed	speed	3	3	1	YYY	0.66	hist	yes
Facemask / Face Mask	face mask|facemask	10	7	0.7	YYYYYnnYnY	0.61	hist	yes
Wild	wild	10	7	0.7	YYYnYnnYYY	0.58	hist	yes
Inch / Inches	inch	10	6	0.6	YYYYYnnYnn	0.54	hist	yes
Overtime	overtime	10	5	0.5	YYYYYnnnnn	0.46	hist	yes
Turf	turf	8	4	0.5	YnYnnYnY	0.46	hist	no
Stuffed	stuffed	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.42	hist	yes
Down to the wire	down to the wire	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.36	hist	no
Pylon	pylon	10	3	0.3	nYYnYnnnnn	0.32	hist	no
Doink / Doinked	doink|doinked	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Intentional Grounding	intentional grounding	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	0.28	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	9	2	0.22	nnnYnnYnn	0.27	hist	no
Hail Mary	hail mary	10	2	0.2	YnnnnnnnnY	0.25	hist	yes
Pick Six	pick six	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.24	hist	no
Ejected / Ejection	ejected|ejection	3	0	0	nnn	0.21	hist	no
What a catch	what a catch	3	0	0	nnn	0.21	hist	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	10	1	0.1	nnnnnnnnnY	0.17	hist	no
Concussion Protocol	concussion protocol	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.15	hist	no
One Handed	one handed	10	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.09	hist	no
Miracle	miracle	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	0.09	hist	no
Big Ben / Roethlisberger	big ben|roethlisberger	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Rival / Rivalry	rival|rivalry	0	0			0.38	prior	yes
Veteran	veteran	0	0			0.38	prior	yes