# College football (college-football) · game 2025-12-31 · 18 words · K k:KXNCAAMENTION-25DEC31MICHTEX · as_of 2026-10-26T14:55:15Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2025-12-31 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNCAAMENTION-25DEC31MICHTEX ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of Michigan at Texas college football game originally scheduled for Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Freshman	freshman	17	17	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.93	yes
Safety	safety	19	18	0.95	YYYYYYnYYY	0.88	yes
Transfer	transfer	17	14	0.82	YYYYYYYYYn	0.81	yes
Draft	draft	17	10	0.59	YYYnYYnYYn	0.6	yes
Schedule	schedule	17	11	0.65	YYYYnYnnYY	0.59	no
Wind / Windy	wind|windy	17	10	0.59	nYYnYnnnYY	0.54	yes
Turf	turf	19	11	0.58	YYnnnnYYYY	0.54	no
Heisman	heisman	17	9	0.53	YYnnnYnnnn	0.54	yes
No Good	no good	10	5	0.5	YnYnnYYYnn	0.53	no
Recruit / Recruitment	recruit|recruitment	16	9	0.56	nYYYnYnYYY	0.52	yes
Wild	wild	17	8	0.47	YnnYYYnYnn	0.49	no
What a Catch	what a catch	19	8	0.42	nnnYnYYnnY	0.4	no
Camping World	camping world	1	0	0	n	0.4	yes
One Handed	one handed	18	6	0.33	nYnnnYYnnY	0.33	no
Late Hit	late hit	19	5	0.26	nYnnnnnnnY	0.27	no
Tush Push	tush push	15	3	0.2	nYnnYnnnnn	0.27	no
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	14	2	0.14	nYnnnYnnnn	0.22	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	19	2	0.11	nnnnnnnYnn	0.17	yes