# College football (college-football) · game 2025-12-31 · 18 words · K k:KXNCAAMENTION-25DEC31ASUDUKE · as_of 2026-10-26T09:50:36Z
# scope K pbp_or_color · n/y settled before 2025-12-31 · tn/th blank: no game transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXNCAAMENTION-25DEC31ASUDUKE ({word} = w of K rows): If the play by play or color commentator(s) says {word} as part of Arizona St. at Duke college football game originally scheduled for Dec 31, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Freshman	freshman	17	17	1	YYYYYYYYYY	0.93	hist	yes
Safety	safety	19	18	0.95	YYYYYYnYYY	0.88	hist	yes
Transfer	transfer	17	14	0.82	YYYYYYYYYn	0.81	hist	yes
Draft	draft	17	10	0.59	YYYnYYnYYn	0.6	hist	yes
Schedule	schedule	17	11	0.65	YYYYnYnnYY	0.59	hist	no
Wind / Windy	wind|windy	17	10	0.59	nYYnYnnnYY	0.54	hist	yes
Turf	turf	19	11	0.58	YYnnnnYYYY	0.54	hist	yes
Heisman	heisman	17	9	0.53	YYnnnYnnnn	0.54	hist	yes
No Good	no good	10	5	0.5	YnYnnYYYnn	0.53	hist	yes
Recruit / Recruitment	recruit|recruitment	16	9	0.56	nYYYnYnYYY	0.52	hist	no
Wild	wild	17	8	0.47	YnnYYYnYnn	0.49	hist	no
What a Catch	what a catch	19	8	0.42	nnnYnYYnnY	0.4	hist	no
One Handed	one handed	18	6	0.33	nYnnnYYnnY	0.33	hist	no
Late Hit	late hit	19	5	0.26	nYnnnnnnnY	0.27	hist	no
Tush Push	tush push	15	3	0.2	nYnnYnnnnn	0.27	hist	no
Superbowl / Super Bowl	super bowl|superbowl	14	2	0.14	nYnnnYnnnn	0.22	hist	no
Roughing the Passer	roughing the passer	19	2	0.11	nnnnnnnYnn	0.17	hist	no
Sun City	sun city	0	0			0.51	prior	no